Friday, August 19, 2011

The Great Roster Project (Part 1)


So we've finally done it after talking about it for so long. After complaining about how bad Madden's ratings are, we've decided to take the high road and be part of the solution. We've decided to rate every NFL player using a System that we've devised that is quick, accurate and allows for ratings that are as objective as possible.

Many of you know we have a major gripe with the Madden Ratings. Our stance is that they're too high and it hurts gameplay in addition to totally imbalancing progression in Franchise. The ratings system also seems to be one based on highlights, hype, too much player influence and almost totally lacks consistency. We rate players based on their production (stats) since it is the one truly objective aspect of sports that can tell you how effective a player is being. We look at the last three years of numbers with the most emphasis on the most recent year (which we've linked so you can examine them for yourself) and rate a player based on those measurables to reward consistency and to avoid what we often describe as one-year-wonders. Although a high level of play early in their career will cause a player to be rated higher/faster than someone who is a 6-year vet and finally breaks through with a good season. Its also our belief that instead of one person trying to rate every player in the NFL, it makes more sense to have one scout per team with a person who is objective, well-versed in our rating system and can really tell you what players are improving, declining, average, good or elite.

Want to be part of our team? GREAT. Keep in mind the first thing you'll need to embrace is that Madden's Ratings are too high.We rate on a scale that is drastically different from Madden, but one that you'll recognize from being in school.

Roster Legend
Hall of Famer 97-99
Elite Player 90–96
Very Good/Almost Elite Player 85-89
Good Player 80-84
Solid Player 75-79

Average Player 70-74
Bench Contributor/1st round draft picks 60-69
Second String/2nd round draft picks/Special Teams Standout 50-59
3rd String/Special Teams Player 40-49

Player drafted after the 3rd round/ Undrafted FA/End-of-roster player 30-39
Practice Squad 20-29

It looks familiar doesn't it? If you notice we don't rate active players higher than a 96. We've reserved that for Hall of Famers and All-Time Greats. Next you'll notice that we only rate "good" players higher than 80. A rating of 85+ is even more rare. You'll see that we rate most "average" NFL starters from 70-74, when we consider someone "better than average" or "solid" we rate them 75-79. The other thing that will probably stand out to you is that given how often rookies don't pan out (even these supposedly elite, can't miss prospects we hear about every year) we rate 1st Rounders from 60-69, 2nd Rounders from 50-59, 3rd Rounders from 40-49 and people drafted after the third round and undrafted free agents from 30-39. Finally, we rate Practice Squad level players from 20-29.

Why? you're asking. Its an issue of Consistency and Accuracy. These players haven't done anything in the NFL. They've never even played a down. How in God's name could we rate Patrick Peterson higher than say, Eric Wright? Because Mel Kiper says so? Wright has actually played in the league (at an average level--but still) whereas Peterson is nothing but "potentially" great. Guys like that fail to meet expectations every year, so we feel its our duty to give them a baseline rating until they actually do something. For every Patrick Peterson, there's a Terrell Buckley, Ahmad Carroll, Chris Houston and Jamaal Anderson. So trust us, nothing is guaranteed. Then there's the issue of too-high ratings. Now here are Wright's last three years. Solid, right? Now If you were grading his CB play on a 1-99 scale would you give him an 81 like Madden did? Neither would we. We'd give him a rating that was in the average range especially since last year was his worst. So we rated him a 73.


The last aspect of what we do is updating player ratings for people who improve/decline during the season. While we understand that EA updates player ratings every week, we completely disagree here. From week-to-week player performance ebbs and flows too much for that. And to be honest, there simply isn't enough data to rate a player based on one game's performance. What do you rate a 70 rated RB after a 200 yard performance? a 90? What if he averages 30 ypg over the next three weeks? Is he still a 90? Or a player that had a good week? For all these reasons we look for a more accurate range of data. We decide on improving/declining players on a quarter system. Or every four weeks of the NFL season.


Look out for Part Two of the Great Roster Project, coming soon. In the meantime, here is our link to our (still-unfinished NFL Rosters)

NFL Rosters

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