Steals and the Zero Sum Game

One of the real gifts that online play offers is the thrill of the head-to-head challenge against another player. The act of matching up against another person offers a brand of freshness and unpredictability that no AI can match...this gift, though...can also be a curse.

There's a cheesy brand of player who's goal is to discover the loopholes and exploits in gameplay and abuse them, but this player is rare. More often, with the goal of trying to win, players do what they have success with. They aren't trying to abuse gameplay as much as they're simply doing what works.

I have an issue with the current state of steals. While I love the fact that defenders can poke the ball away organically (making end-of-game situations genuinely exciting now) there's a downside to seeing it in actual gameplay. My Questions are simple: 1) Does the player stealing the ball possess the skill-set? 2) Does success have a realistic ratio based on their skill-set? 3) Is the feature balanced out with Risks and Rewards? and most importantly, 4) Does gameplay punish spam? Because as I stated above, players do what works, the game itself has to provide safeguards and limits...users won't self-impose them.

Consider the history, calling plays has often resulted in being a sitting duck for steal attempts. And steals forcing players into cumbersome animations has a long, painful history. In previous 2Ks an effective way to stop floppy plays was to use steal attempts (which triggered animations as the PG prepared to pass) to throw the timing off--notice I didn't say steal the ball, because the animations themselves broke up the play. Sadly, that core issue still exists. Users can force you into animations (especially effective late in the shot-clock) even if their steals aren't successful--which breaks the core Dev/Gamer agreement in H2H play...you can't reward players for failure.

I've long seen a number of obvious issues with steals, but decided to outline them after seeing continued abuse online. I've come to the conclusion that steals (and blocks as well, honestly) have to be a Zero Sum Game. The steal result has to be completely Pass or Fail so that users use it more sparingly...and so that Reward is balanced with Risk. It should be limited to three outcomes 1) Success - The ball is dislodged from the ball-handler 2) Failure - The defender hits the player and is called for a foul 3) Failure - The player misses entirely and is now in bad defensive position. Why? That answer's easy. Because lack of consequences prompts spamming attempts--particularly when the reward is a turnover in game where there are less than 40 possessions. If the result is a disproportionately low amount of risk with few consequences for failure, why wouldn't players spam?

So recently I matched up with Phoenix and a typical steal/block spammer. The following was the result: Watch all the clips, its important to get a sense of how much this guy spammed, it was literally every possession. Note: Bledsoe's steal rating is 83.

1. It was close early, notice how terrible block timing (I haven't even shot the ball yet) has no negative result. (i.e. a shooting foul) if his timing is good, he blocks this shot...bad timing has to have more consequences.

2. It was more of the same with Steal Spam. He literally reached all game, like so. Clip 2 
3. I play Conservative D and try to avoid fouls, the Sixers are bad so my AI guys foul alot. Still, I reach very little. The spam continues 2nd quarter, complete with forcing me into animations. Clip 3 
4. Horrible block timing (and crashing down on my PG) No foul. Clip 4

5. Late in the 2nd, more forced animations (without fouls, mind you) :

6. Later in the 2nd, spam starting to pay off. Clip 7
7. End of the 2nd, horrible block timing gets me a layup. Clip 8
8. The 3rd quarter starts off with an illegal screen (watch Len) no call, BANG. Clip 9
9. Early 3rd, the horrible block timing and steal spam continue. Clip 10
10. Mid-3rd quarter, more spam. No fouls, btw. Clip 11
11. Early 4th quarter, more bad timing. No fouls. Clip 12
12. He reaches and I drive-and-kick (more bad defensive position from missed steals, please) Clip 13
13. Mid-4th, more spam, no fouls Clip 14
14. Down two late going for the tie and you'll never guess what happens....

 Below is the final tally, consider this: Spamming Steal and Blocks and being hyper-aggressive yielded him a lower foul total than me when I did the complete opposite. Eight total fouls after spamming steal and block as much as he did? (not to mention doing it badly) Six FTs means I went to the line 3 times total (only once for a steal attempt) and sadly this isn't a one-off, its a gameplay trend and legacy issue that badly needs resolving. Its also important to note this guy isn't the enemy, GAMEPLAY IS...he's simply doing what works.

The solution is Three Outcomes 1) Success - The ball is dislodged from the ball-handler 2) Failure - The defender hits the player and is called for a foul 3) Failure - The player misses entirely and is now in bad defensive position.