History Says: Stop Overrating Rookies

 "Those who fail to learn from the past are doomed to repeat it."

 Recently released Madden info via the guy who does their rosters revealed that Baylor QB and Heisman winner RG3's greatness in Madden 13 may have already been decided. Why? What has Griffin done to deserve being the next Michael Vick? After the example of players like Jamarcus Russell, Tony Mandarich and countless others, we've gone on record as being advocates of much lower rookie ratings across the board. We've always been long-time fans of a baseline system where rookies come in with a set rating lower than NFL starters until they actually perform.

In the interests of research, we decided to take a look at the top two picks for the last decade, to see if anyone has truly come in deserving of a rating of 80 or higher (especially when our system has semi-established players like Darren McFadden rated a 77) Much like the much-more-consistent rating system 2K uses, we rate most average NFL starters in the 70-74 range, so players whose numbers reflect below-average play will be rated below 70. Here's what we found:

2001 - Michael Vick - This guy would become one of the most dynamic players in football, but in his rookie year you only saw small flashes. He started 2 games, and shared snaps with Chris Chandler on a 7-9 team. Completed 44.2% of his passes (yes, lower than Tebow) and had 2 TD passes and 3 INTs. Rushed for 289 yds with 1 TD and fumbled 6 times. Rating? 62.
Leonard Davis - Unfortunately in a time before PFF, its difficult to find data for offensive linemen. While Davis was always a specimen, he never did anything to solidify the OL there in Arizona. As a matter of fact, he wasn't considered an above average player until he went to Dallas and changed positions. Rating: 65

2002 - David Carr - Oh my...this might hurt a little. In his first season in a career of below average play, Carr completed 52% of his passes for 2,592yds. He passed for 9 TDs and 15 INTs. Rating: 63
Julius Peppers - Now we're getting somewhere. Peppers dominated from the word GO. About the only thing he didn't do was lead his team to the playoffs. 12 sacks, 36 tackles, 5 FFs and even an INT. Now THATS Production. Rating: 83

2003 - Carson Palmer - Palmer started 13 games and had a solid season (for a rookie) he passed for 2,897 and washed with 18 TDs/18 INTs at a 60.9% clip. Rating: 67
Charles Rogers - More reasons why rookies should have baseline ratings until they actually do something. The "Next Randy Moss" played in five games caught 22 balls for 243 yds and 3 TDs. Let's wait until players perform before anointing them anything, shall we? Rating: 60

2004 - Eli Manning - Now we all know Eli is an Elite QB, but was he as a rookie or did he get that rating the old fashioned way? BY EARNING IT. Eli shared time with Kurt Warner but was BAD. How bad? A 48.2 completion rate, 1043 yds and 6 TDs and 9 INTs. Rating: 62
Robert Gallery - The word on Gallery was that he was struggling to pick up the speed of the NFL game. He didn't figure it out until right before it was contract time. He heard "bust" for almost four years in Oakland. Rating: 62

2005 - Alex Smith - We could probably stop here but we're going for the jugular based on some of the foolishness we've heard related to RG3 in Madden 13. Smith struggled. PERIOD. If his Madden rating was higher than 75 at any time in Madden (we actually rated him a 75 after last year ) the person rating him needs to face criminal charges. 50.9 comp %, 875 yds, 1TD and 11 INTs. Rating: 60
Ronnie Brown - While he never lived up to his franchise back reputation, pretty solid rookie season for this guy. 907 yds, 4.4 avg and 4 TDs. Rating:75

2006 - Mario Williams - This guy would figure it out in year two (and subsequently break the bank in free agency this year) but after his first year, remember how many people were calling the decision to pick this guy over Reggie Bush a colossal mistake? 47 tackles, 4.5 sacks and 4 passes defensed. rating: 65
Reggie Bush - Chuckle...it was said he would be the next great HB. HARDLY. Came into Madden rated a record-high for rookies at 87. FACT: He'll never be rated higher in Madden than he was as a rookie. Had a solid season this year but looks like an average back. Solid rookie season, even if he struggled as a runner (3.6 yd avg). 565 rushing yds with 6 TDs, 88 rec for 742 yds and 2 TDs. Also had a PR for a TD. Rating: 74

2007 - Jamarcus Russell - The poster-child for our campaign to tie rookie ratings to actual performance. Those without goldfish-style memories will remember this guy held out for half the season and then played sparingly. 54% completions, 373 yds, 2 TDs and 4 INTs. Rating: 61
Calvin Johnson - Even Megatron didn't set the world on fire. What you mostly saw was potential. 48 rec, 756 yds and 4 TDs. Rating: 73

2008 - Jake Long - This guy bucked a big trend and actually played lights out as a rookie. Solidified the LT position for Miami and lived up to his #1 draft status. Rating: 81
Chris Long - Here's another guy who heard "bust" until finally producing in his third year. Long was described as "lacking explosion" and "an average athlete". 40 tackles, 4 sacks and 1 FF. Rating: 65

2009 - Matthew Stafford - More rookie struggles. 53% comp, 2267 yds, 13TDs and 20 INTs. Starting to see a trend here? Rating: 63
Jason Smith - Another guy who many view as a poor selection to date. Struggled as a rookie and missed half the season with a concussion. Was subsequently switched to RT and numerous pundits are mentioning he may be cut if not willing to restructure. Rating: 61

2010 - Sam Bradford - Now here's a guy who hit the ground running. Started every game and posted numbers a mid-level NFL starter would have been proud of. 60% comp, 3,512 yds with 18 TDs and 15 INTs. Rating: 75
Ndamukong Suh - Right up there with Peppers as the most dominating rookie top-two pick in the last decade. Needed no adjustment period. 66 tackles, 10 sacks and even an interception. Rating: 83

2011 - Cam Newton - Good rookie season by any measure except wins. 60% comp, 4051 yds, 21 TDs and 17 INTs. Already puts himself above the mid-tier of quarterbacks. Rating: 78
Von Miller - Like Suh and Peppers, the rookie title never really applied here. Produced from day one and helped the best unit on his team lead Denver to the playoffs. 64 tackles, 11.5 sacks and 2 FF. Rating: 85

Well, those are just the cold-hard facts. Rookies coming in and dominating? Happens, just not very often. While the case could be made that QBs are coming in more NFL-ready, there's more evidence to the contrary. While Madden may not be ready to shrink most of their ratings to the 50-70 range for most players we prefer, rookies clearly must come in rated much lower. Stop using rookie ratings as a marketing tool and correctly display their level of play. Players who've never played a down of NFL football should never come into the game rated higher than even low-level NFL starters. The proof is in the pudding.

Almost forgot: Michael Crabtree says HI. He was rated 84 as a rookie in 2009. For the record we rated the Packers' Jordy Nelson an 84 after last year (68 rec, 1263 yds, 15 TDs).